Tuesday, December 2, 2008

Economic Slowdown

I hear more and more in the press, the foreign press reading the Chinese press seems to be mostly a waste of time, about how the economic slowdown is effecting China. Down at first from 12% growth to something like 9 it may be in fact lower then that, though it's always a little hard to gauge since the party doesn't exactly love transparency. What I wonder is what a slowdown or even a recession would look like in China. 8% growth may seem like a lot but when you've been planing on 12 it actually means people end up out of a job and building end up half built or empty. I see some of that here, though with the rate they build things I can't tell if that's just normal. I read a story about how there are a lot of labors from the country side who now that some of the work has dried up are looking to go back home which makes the local government nervious about a huge influx of unemployed people. I wonder how much blame the government here would git in a full fledged crises since they take so much of the credit when things go well and have built the system to make themselves totally responsible for everything. One story was about a guy from Wuxi who couldn't find more work and had to go home. Wuxi is probably the closest city to Changzhou being about a stones throw to the East. While my job isn't really all that likely to be effected, since there still aren't nearly enough foreigners to go around, it's not only the US that's effected by all this. Who new some bad homes loans in Dayton, Ohio where going to put people out of work in Changzhou, China; welcome to the global economy.

1 comment:

Mom said...

Well, I wouldn't be so sanguine about keeping a job anywhere these days! But it might be a good idea to wait out the recession in a place where your stills are in high demand.